adidas AG

How the market values this stock relative to its fundamentals.

Quarterly revenue growth of 4.76% year-over-year reflects steady, if unspectacular, top-line expansion, consistent with quarterly sales figures ranging from €5.95 billion to €6.74 billion over the trailing six quarters. Full-year revenue grew from €23.68 billion in FY2025 to €24.81 billion in FY2026, a low-single-digit increase that nonetheless represents a record for the company on a quarterly basis in Q2 2026. EPS growth of 66.5% year-over-year looks dramatic but is heavily skewed by weak prior-year comparisons, particularly the depressed Q4 2025 quarter (net income of just €91 million). Investors should treat this figure with caution rather than extrapolating it forward. Management's decision to raise full-year 2026 sales guidance following record Q2 revenue is a genuinely encouraging signal about demand strength, even as near-term profit growth is being tempered by elevated World Cup marketing investment.

adidas posted a trailing twelve-month net profit margin of 5.3% and an operating margin of 8.5%, with gross profit of €12.805 billion on revenue of €24.811 billion (a gross margin near 51.6%). Return on equity of 24.3% is notably strong, reflecting efficient use of shareholder capital, while return on assets of 6.7% is more modest, consistent with a moderately asset-heavy retail and manufacturing footprint. Quarterly operating income has been volatile — from €164 million in Q4 2025 to €706 million in Q1 2026 and €574 million in Q2 2026 — illustrating the impact of seasonal marketing spend, particularly the World Cup-related investment that compressed Q2 2026 profitability despite record revenue. This pattern suggests the business retains solid underlying pricing power and brand strength, but margin consistency remains a work in progress as management balances growth investment against near-term earnings.

adidas's balance sheet as of Q2 2026 shows total assets of €21.06 billion against total liabilities of €14.71 billion and total shareholders' equity of €6.35 billion, producing a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 2.32x — elevated but not unusual for a global consumer brand with significant lease and working capital obligations. The current ratio of 1.39x, derived from current assets of €12.83 billion against current liabilities of €9.22 billion, indicates adequate short-term liquidity without excess cushion. Cash and short-term investments total roughly €1.81 billion, providing a reasonable but not overwhelming buffer against the company's €5.98 billion in combined short- and long-term debt. Free cash flow has been inconsistent on a quarterly basis, swinging from a negative €422 million in Q1 2026 to a positive €895 million in Q2 2026, reflecting working capital timing and share repurchase activity rather than a structural cash generation problem. Overall, the capital structure appears manageable but leaves less room for error than a more conservatively levered peer.

Key technical indicators and price action signals.

adidas is in a well-established downtrend, trading below both its 50-day (€160.28) and 200-day (€191.94) moving averages with the 50-day now under the 200-day, consistent with a death-cross configuration. The ADX reading of 53.69 confirms this is a strong, persistent trend rather than a choppy consolidation, while MACD remains firmly negative (-2.457 vs. signal -0.091), reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI at 34.22 is approaching but has not yet reached oversold territory, leaving some room for further downside before a technical bounce becomes likely. The price sits near the lower half of its Bollinger Band range, with the €148.23 lower band representing a key near-term technical level to watch.